Statistics Module 3a Prepare Data

This week begins a new Project focused on Statistics and issues that are both social and economic, socioeconomic.  The setting is the familiar rolling hills and dense forests of West Virginia (WV).  The study area is Charleston (County Seat), WV including five counties: all of Kanawha and Putnam and 3 extended counties, Clay, Boone, and Lincoln.  The number crunching involves various types (social and economic) of data: population, salary, poverty, Crystal Meth Labs.  The Project goal is a scientific report explaining the results of an analysis that uses GIS to show the facts and figures surrounding a cultural issue, crystal meth.  This week's goal will focus on writing the Introduction and Background sections of the final report.  The lecture involved the following: lecture video and various readings: A Weisheit and Wells article and writing guide were aides used to complete this week's assignment.  The Lab was a five-step exercise that resulted in the map described in summary below.  Here were the five steps:

1. Obtain the data provided by UWF from Repository drive
2. Review the data
1. Busted Meth Labs, point feature class
2. Census Tract data, polygon feature class
3. Prepare the Census Data
4. Join Meth Labs to Census Blocks
5. Create basemap to augment the provided data

The end Goal (Why) for this project is twofold:

1. Exposure to ArcGIS Spatial analysis Tools and common methods and learn to apply them to solve real-world problems
2. Exposure to examining peer-review literature and applying those methods and techniques to a similar project.  

The weekly Objectives (What) were as follows:

• Write an Introduction section of a final report paper
• Write a Background section of a final report paper
• Create a basemap to act as an underlayer to Busted Meth Labs and Census Tracts
• Start understanding linear regression and establish a visual of this predictive type of analysis

What was learned/remembered this week?
The Shake and Bake process of making Meth may be the easiest to perform, but it is an extremely dangerous game to play!

The process of using independent data (socioeconomic variables) to make predictions based on dependent data (Meth Lab seizures) involves the work that we will be performing and reporting on during this Statistics project.

What was challenging this week?
Understanding the gist of this project in a visual way my biggest challenge this week.
The image below helped me visually refresh my basic understanding of linear regression.
It sure has been a long time remembering the difference between explained deviation (SSR) and unexplained deviation (SSE).  For me, a line of best fit is a good way to understand regression.

Any Weekly Positives?
In a big-picture way, I have a basic understanding of predictive analysis.

In Summary, the main feature in the lab experiment was showcasing the busted meth lab (BML) locations, which was spatially joined with 2010 Census county boundaries.  The Main Study area was created by selecting the two main counties and exporting then off as a separate layer.  Both the BML and Census Layer were provided in this week's lab exercise; and there are sources from US DEA National Clandestine Laboratory Register and Tiger/Census data.  I also created the Extended Study Area to show a parent relationship of all counties (Putnam, Kanawha, Lincoln, Boone, Clay) containing a BML.  To create the basemap, I searched and downloaded the following ancillary features: Incorporated Places (Major Place), which were originally polygons that I converted to points using the feature to point tool and then adding a definition query to filter on features with units greater than 1500; Interstate & US Routes where originally created by WV DOT and derived from Statewide Addressing Member Board (SAMB) 2003 aerial photography.

Songs of the Week

• Breaking Bad Song of the Week is by the late Johny Cash - "Hurt"
• Inspired by the Dangerous/Wicked game of making Meth: "Wicked Game" by Chris Isaak
• When searching the internet with Meth and WV as keywords, Mini Thin SEO scores high.  I never knew this author until now.  He is known as a "hick hop" rapper and raps about life in West Virginia, where crystal meth, moonshine, and Oxycontin are part of the culture. 
  WARNING: his content is Graphic and Heavy language
• "Meth Labs & Moonshine" from the album "Hillbilly Hustle"

References:

• ZedStatistics, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aq8VU5KLmkY&t=558s

• MathBits, https://mathbits.com/MathBits/TISection/Statistics1/LineFit.htm